HARARE, March 31 (Reuters) - An independent Zimbabwean election monitoring group forecast on Monday that opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai would win the most votes in the presidential election but may face a second round.

The Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) said its projections giving him 49.4 percent were based on a random sample of 435 polling stations across the country's 10 provinces. (Reporting by Nelson Banya)