By Francois Murphy
PARIS, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The case of a French group that tried to fly 103 children out of Chad has raised tensions and embarrassed Paris but is unlikely to seriously harm relations between two nations bound by military and historic links.
Chad has brought abduction and fraud charges against nine French and seven Spanish nationals it accuses of illegally trying to fly African children to Europe in an operation France has condemned as immoral and probably illegal.
The incident has come at a bad time for Paris. It is providing half of a European Union peacekeeping force due to be deployed shortly in Chad's violent eastern region -- an operation that Chad's President Idriss Deby initially opposed.
Deby has strongly criticised those arrested, prompting accusations from the group that he is using the situation for political ends, but analysts said he was unlikely to use the case as a bargaining chip to rein in the EU force.
France's Foreign Ministry has said Deby has told Paris the case will not affect the EU force. On Wednesday, a Chadian official said Deby has given assurances the case "would not call into question the deployment of the European force".
Deby's outspoken comments may have more to do with domestic politics than a deeper rift with France, which helped keep him in power by providing fighter jets and troops stationed in its former colony in support of his forces when they clashed with rebels this year.
"Anything is possible, but that would be extremely cheeky," said Francois Grignon, Africa programme director for the International Crisis Group, said of speculation Deby might interfere with the EU mission's plans.
"He is only in his strong position thanks to the French," Grignon said, adding that Deby might, however, use the situation to attack other interests.
"The human rights situation in Chad is catastrophic. So will he use it to attack Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch or NGOs that do that kind of work? It's possible," he said.
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Several of those arrested were members of a group called Zoe's Ark, which said earlier this year it wanted to bring children from Sudan's war-torn Darfur region, which borders Chad, to France for adoption.
While the group has dropped references to adoption, French diplomats have said its intentions on the issue were unclear, and France's Foreign Ministry issued a warning about the group questioning the legality of such an initiative.
France has had to tread carefully between condemning the group's actions to show that it sympathises with angered Chadians, and saying that it will provide assistance to its citizens to counter criticism from opposition Socialists.
"France is seriously bothered by this affair. It cannot completely abandon its citizens, who are more clumsy oafs than real bad guys. And Chad is making the most of it to raise the stakes as much as possible," said Philippe Moreau Defarge of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).
"I think there will be negotiation, haggling that will end in two weeks, three weeks, a month, where on the one hand Chad will say 'We have to punish these people, it's horrible', and France will try to get them out in drips and drabs," he added.
"Will this affair badly damage French-Chadian relations? No."
Deby has called the operation -- which Zoe's Ark says was an effort to offer the children a better life -- "pure and simple abduction" and demanded tough penalties for those responsible.
"These people ... treat us like animals. So this is the image of the saviour Europe, which gives lessons to our countries. This is the image of Europe which helps Africans," Chad's official presidency Web site quoted Deby as saying.
The French government faced a stormy session of questions in parliament on Tuesday as opposition lawmakers questioned why French authorities did not stop the members of Zoe's Ark and did not do more to protect the French citizens.
President Nicolas Sarkozy said later on Tuesday he would work for a solution "so that no one loses face in this affair".
That would also be in Deby's interest, as he has little interest in preventing the deployment of the EU force, known as EUFOR, which he and the United Nations have already given the green light for.
"The EUFOR mission will benefit Deby enormously by consolidating the security situation in eastern Chad, which he is not in control of at all," Grignon said.
