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OPEC keeps lid on oil output in Aug-Reuters survey

Mon 3 Sep 2007, 9:39 GMT
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By Alex Lawler

LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC, excluding Iraq and Angola, kept oil output little changed in August and supply from all members of the 12-nation group fell because of a drop in Iraqi exports, a Reuters survey showed on Monday.

Ten OPEC members bound by output targets, all except Iraq and Angola, pumped 26.74 million barrels per day (bpd), up 60,000 bpd from July, according to the survey of oil firms, traders, OPEC officials and analysts.

The survey suggests OPEC is sticking to voluntary output limits even after a rise in crude prices, which hit a record high near $79 a barrel on Aug. 1. Analysts expect OPEC to keep that policy in place at its meeting in Vienna on Sept. 11.

"With the uncertainty around the global economy, OPEC isn't going to open up the taps," said Paul Tossetti, director of market analysis at Washington-based PFC Energy.

Crude oil in New York is trading at around $74 a barrel, down from a record high of $78.77 reached on Aug. 1, partly on investors' concern that worsening credit conditions and a U.S. slowdown could take a wider economic toll.

OPEC meets on Sept. 11 to decide policy, and officials from the group have said they expect supply curbs agreed last year to remain in place for now. It holds another meeting in December.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, source of more than a third of the world's oil, agreed last year to lower production by 1.2 million bpd from Nov. 1 and by a further 500,000 bpd from Feb. 1 to prop up prices.

August supply from the 10 countries was 900,000 bpd less than in October, according to Reuters estimates, or about 53 percent of the total production cut pledged.

Total OPEC production fell to 30.37 million bpd from 30.51 million bpd in July largely because of lower shipments from Iraq, according to the survey.

OPEC oil ministers and officials have repeatedly said crude oil supply is adequate, rebuffing calls from consumer nations as represented by the International Energy Agency for higher output.

SAUDI OUTPUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER

Supply from Saudi Arabia edged up 50,000 bpd to 8.65 million bpd, offsetting a decline in Iran.

The world's top oil exporter has told customers that supply in September will remain steady, according to industry sources, a sign OPEC will roll over policy at next week's meeting.

Still, some estimates put Saudi wellhead production at a higher rate than its supply -- the measure used by the Reuters survey which excludes oil that is pumped and moved into storage.

"They are producing much more than they are selling," said Conrad Gerber of Petrologistics, which tracks oil tanker shipments to assess OPEC output. The move may be to allow supply to be ramped up quickly if needed, he said.

Saudi Arabia has not commented publicly on the oil market since July 11, when Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said there was a good balance between supply and demand.

Nigeria's output held steady in August because of fewer disruptions caused by attacks on the country's oil industry.

Iraqi supply dipped to 1.95 million bpd from 2.18 million bpd in July, the survey found. Exports hit the highest in nearly three years in July as Iraq exported some Kirkuk crude from its northern fields and increased shipments from southern ports.

Storage tanks at Ceyhan in Turkey receive sporadic deliveries of Kirkuk by pipeline from Iraq. Supply this month will probably rise again because Baghdad plans to sell more Kirkuk in September.

Angolan output, rising steadily as new offshore fields come on stream, reached 1.68 million bpd, up 30,000 bpd from July.

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